No correlation between college and income

This morning I was reading some articles from the Utah Department of Workforce Services' Trendlines publication. One article discussed the increase in median household income for the six most populous counties in the state. Another discussed the educational attainment of the same counties.

Naturally, I wondered about the correlation between the two. After all, if the people making the most noise about college are correct, there should be a distinct positive correlation. Right?

I did a quick regression analysis on the data. The first article listed median income for 2005 and 2007. The second included the percent of the population older than 25 that had at least a bachelor's degree. Since I don't know how current the data from the second article is, I did two analyses: one for 2007 and another for 2005.

Here's the data that Gnumeric (my favorite spreadsheet application) produced for me:

2007

County	% B.A.	2007 M.I.
Cache	34.2	$45,695
Davis	31.6	$65,686
Salt Lake	30	$56,350
Utah	34.3	$57,408
Washington	19.6	$46,822
Weber	22.5	$52,155

2005

County	% B.A.	2005 M.I.
Cache	34.2	$41,097
Davis	31.6	$56,809
Salt Lake	30	$48,068
Utah	34.3	$47,428
Washington	19.6	$43,980
Weber	22.5	$49,107

Regression (2007)

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R	0.3763818345189
R Square	0.14166328535581
Adjusted R Square	−0.07292089330524
Standard Error	7718.04054428782
Observations	6

Regression (2005)

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R	0.08550799026314
R Square	0.00731161639884
Adjusted R Square	−0.24086047950145
Standard Error	5948.6234792109
Observations	6

If you don't know and/or care much for statistics, the key value to look for is "R Square". The closer that number is to 1, the more perfectly correlated the data. The closer to 0, the less the numbers have to do with each other. For 2007 that number is about 0.14. For 2005 it is about 0.01. Even the 2007 number does not indicate any correlation.

I, a devout doubter of the return on investment of college, was surprised by this. No correlation at all? Amazing. I'll grant that such a small sample (n=6) doesn't mean much, but I found it interesting nonetheless.

Election prediction

As the election is tomorrow, I thought I would share my predictions with the world. The outcome of the election... won't matter. Whether we have President Obama or President McCain in January, the issues that concern me most are passed the point of fixing.

1. The National Debt. If you have had the stomach to watch the news and also block out the political cruft, you might be aware that the national debt has passed the $10,000,000,000,000 mark. I predict that the recession will be long enough that government revenues will not be close to expenditures over the next four years. If the debt is only $12 Trillion four years from now I will count us lucky.

2. Health Care. No new policy or program can defy the simple law of supply and demand. The Baby Boomers, a huge generation, are retiring, and as people age they require more health care. Especially a generation that did a lot of drugs in the 60's and ate a lot of McDonald's in the 80's and 90's. Health care will be the largest segment of federal expenditures in four years, and will have grown faster than any other segment.

3. Education. Despite the mess of No Child Left Behind, more money will be poured into the Department of Education, producing even worse results. I doubt anyone in Washington will figure out that the best way for them to improve education is just to stay out of the way of educators and parents.

4. Energy. For reasons that still baffle me, elected officials just don't get it when it comes to energy. If I could vote for T. Boone Pickens for president, I would. Four years from now we'll still be driving gasoline powered cars. The few electric or plug in hybrid cars out there will be charged from a coal powered grid.

So if anyone reads this and remembers it by 2012, remind me to check my predictions. We'll have a month before the end of the world to reflect. (If you have a life and don't watch the History Channel, that last bit is a reference to the supposed prediction of the end of the world by the Mayan calendar.)

Is College worth the cost?

One theme I hope to explore here is the value of a college education. I have concluded that college, like crime, doesn't pay. I know that in stating such a thing I am certainly placing myself in a very small minority. In The Two Income Trap by Elizabeth Warren and her daughter Amelia Warren Tyagi the authors point out that 6% of the population believes the moon landing was faked while 3% believe college is not worth the time and cost.

Despite the heresy of my opinion, I believe I can back it up with reason and evidence. Specifically, the net present value of tuition, fees, books, lost income, etc. needs to be considered. Also, the causality/correlation problem of education attainment and intelligence plays a big factor and should be addressed. A critical look at the data from which the champions of higher ed. derive their propaganda would be a good thing as well. Finally, miscellaneous things such as lifestyle choice after graduation, career demands, the increasing cost of college, and the lack of correlation between education and wealth should be examined.

Of course such discussions take time, and considering how often I post to this blog, it will probably takes years.

Change

When I began this blog last year, it really was with the intention of making regular contributions. Life it funny, though. Since I last posted, I have started two different jobs, moved twice, and still don't quite feel settled. Nevertheless, I still feel compelled to write, so I'll try this again.

GenXY defined

GenXY has two meanings. First, it refers to Generation X and the rising Generation Y. In other words, people roughly in their 20's and 30's.

The other meaning of GenXY has to do with gender. XY refers to male chromosomes. Most of what I have to say is intended for everyone, but there are topics I wish to aim at twenty- and thirty-something men. Men of this age, in my opinion, have been marginalized, ridiculed, and even demonized by the powers that be until their sense of collective identity has dissolved. I would like to address this from time to time.

Genesis

It is time.

For a long time now I've listened--or read, as the case may be. Despite wanting to have a place to share my voice, I have hesitated. I think it is for the same reason I don't play golf. About the time I started to develop an interest in golf, it became popular. Everyone was playing golf, and that was reason enough for me not to.

Similarly, about the time I had intentions of putting my thoughts into the virtual world, everyone was blogging. So I waited. Surely, I thought, there is too much to sift through for anyone to ever find what I have to say. But I am aware that there are a great number of people with too much time on their hands, so it is possible that someone, somewhere will take the time to read my humble words.

I do feel I have something important to contribute to public discourse. I don't intend to be one of those, "Dude, last weekend I saw Spiderman" stream-of-consciousness bloggers. Life is too short to waste reading about trivial lives.

Instead, I would like to share thoughts and ask questions that have often taken years to form. There is a Chinese proverb that goes "May you be cursed to live in interesting times." We are so cursed. I might as well write about it.

It is time.