Wednesday, December 24, 2008


"Man is the animal that has made friends with the fire."
- Henry Van Dyke

"Ah, fire! Scourge of Prometheus! Toaster of marshmallows! Eradicator of dead wood."
-- Sideshow Bob, The Simpsons

Man, the master of elements, the creature most adapted to Earth's fickle climes, the toaster of marshmallows, owes his versatility, his longevity, his knowledge, and his wealth to fire. Though the wild beasts fear it, man is entranced, even soothed, by its sight, smell, and feel. The good servant and evil master is entwined in his past as well as his destiny. For the family from whence I come, fire is almost another sibling. This year marked the point in time for which my high school graduation was half a lifetime ago. The memories of the first half of my life are often tied to fire and the labors that provided fuel for winter fires.

When we lived in Paragonah we had a huge fireplace that could have heated three houses, or so it seemed. I remember the stonework around the fireplace. It was made of green, flat stone that must have come from the pile behind Grandpa's insurance office in Panguitch1. To the left of the fireplace was a hole in the wall to allow heat to flow into the room Steve and I shared. (That hole also worked as a portal for two boys in the months when the fire wasn't burning.) The fireplace itself seemed larger than any other I recall. I think the next size up must have been the "Shadrach, Meshach, and Abednigo" size. I remember how much heat that fireplace would produce. I'm sure it put out more heat than a small nuclear reactor2. I even remember Dad having to repaint portions of the fireplace with a special paint that came in a very small bottle because the intense heat had diminished the finish.

I don't remember how old I was, but I recall toasting marshmallows in that fireplace for s'mores. When the door was open it was easy to become almost hypnotized by the flames within.
Though I am sure we went into the hills to get wood for that fireplace, I don't recall doing so until we moved to Panguitch. I do, however, recall that it was my job to bring in wood from the back porch every night to feed the monster fireplace. It was during my evening chore that my only sister at the time decided to help me. Since we moved to Panguitch when I was ten Shanon couldn't have been more than two. I recall handing her a small log, then another. The second one must have knocked her off balance because she fell over and one of the logs smashed her finger. I felt awful. I felt worse when she had to be taken to the hospital. The whole time she was gone I felt like it was my fault the she was hurt. When she returned home, she staggered around the living room like some Irishman on St. Patrick's Day. It should have been hilarious, but I still felt guilty. The worst was when the tip of her finger turned black and fell off. I was responsible for maiming my sister. Fortunately, the end of her finger (including the nail) grew back, and I finally got over the guilt. Besides, aren't things like hard work and losing fingertips supposed to build character?

Those familiar with our house in Paragonah might realize that the fireplace was in the section of the house that was added on later, which begs the question, "How was the house heated before the addition?" I, for one, know there was a propane wall heater3. Once, after having a bath, I was standing in front of the heater trying to get warm. In order to get the most out of the heater I exposed as much of myself to the warmth as I could. (To the unimaginative, that means my bare butt was near the heater.) Ever one to push a good thing too far, I got closer and closer to the heater until...

I leaped forward in the same moment my backside touched the hot metal. I would like to think I didn't yelp like scared puppy, but I just can't recall. Dad said something like, "My poor boy. Are you at all injured?" Actually, he uttered the immortal words, "It doesn't take him long to check out a hot stove." I think it was meant as a metaphor. Future generations will carve those words into marble buildings. Fortunately, I would not be the last of my siblings to use their backside as a thermometer.

In addition to the fiery furnace of Paragonah, we had a wood burning stove in our new house in Panguitch for several years. One of the duties of summertime was to gather, cut, haul, stack, and split wood for winter. Though the work of getting wood could be tedious and exhausting, it was also enjoyable in its own way.

A typical trip to get wood took most of the day. If Dad's homemade (and in retrospect, rather ingenious) racks were not already on the old red Chevy, he and I would lift them in place. Then the hefty chainsaw box would be loaded in the back next to the spare tire. After snacks and people were crammed into the cab we would be off. (Later trips involved a second vehicle, often the old van.)

Mom and Dad would pick a spot in the hills far enough along a rough road to ensure we were properly nauseous once we arrived. Once we shook that off, it was time to get to work. We would haul logs to the truck, often in teams. As we got bigger, we would carry logs over a shoulder by ourselves. When Dad thought Steve and I were big enough, we were allowed to handle the chainsaw. Though it may sound strange, these things were a measure of our progression to manhood. The work was exhausting, yet it brought a sense of accomplishment and independence.

Of course the work wasn't done when the wood was loaded in the truck. If the logs hadn't been cut before they were loaded in the truck, they had to be cut at home. The larger logs had to be split into smaller pieces using an ax and boy-power. (I do recall the use of a log splitting machine once in Paragonah, but I'm sure that was discontinued because boys needed work to do.) Then all cut and split pieces were stacked in an orderly fashion.

Splitting wood was something that was often done well after the day-long trips to get wood. It was a solitary act, yet one requiring a certain amount of violence. The nearest act to it that I can describe is a boxer or martial artist practicing on a punching bag. It was a way for the angst of adolescence to find a physical outlet.

I recall one time Steve, some cousins, and I were unloading wood. It had all been cut to size on the mountain, so we formed a human chain to unload and stack it. I stood in truck and tossed each log to the next person, who tossed it to the next, etc. The last person in the line would then stack it on the pile. After some minutes of this Steve, who's life ambition at the time was to become a professional wrestler if I recall correctly, said something like, "Do you know how huge we would be if we did this every day?"

The last trip to get wood that I recall was just Steve and I. It seemed to complete a circle. We had the knowledge and maturity to do it on our own. It wasn't long after that trip that Mom and Dad replaced the wood burning stove with a natural gas stove.

Were all these things the only roles fire played in our lives it would be significant, but we also had our campfires. Every member of the family seemed to have the instinct to gather wood for fires as soon as we arrived at a campsite. We also had the instinct to add too much wood to the fire until taught otherwise. Around the campfire we talked and cooked and ate. We did those things together that make families what they are. In the movie Thunderheart a tribal elder says, "We will smoke the pipe and there will be no lies between us."
Perhaps sharing the smoke of the same fire allowed conversation among us that wouldn't be had at home in rectangular rooms among the clutter of everyday living.

There must be something magical to open fires because Dad built a fire pit near the little house even though a well thrown rock from the kitchen could strike the fire pit. Cooking outside near the house in the summertime is not a necessity, but a pleasure. Like the campfire it allows for good conversation. It also allows time to sit and ponder our vast surroundings and reflect in a way that few people probably do anymore.

As our lives move with the technological tide, it seems we spend less and less time with fire, and some part of us recognizes that something is missing. I am glad our parents acquainted us with this form of magic, and I'm glad my children know it too.

1. I don't know where that pile of rocks came from, but I do remember getting hit in the head by one of those rocks thrown by a cousin. I couldn't say which cousin since it was long ago and, well, I had been hit in the head by a rock. Alas, that story has little to do with the fireplace in Paragonah.

2. Author's estimate.

3. I assume it was propane fueled. I didn't notice such things back then. What follows the noted sentence is for posterity only. I derive no pleasure from telling the tale.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Peak Oil and transportation

Last month I attended the fall conference of the Utah chapter of the American Planning Association and spent the entire time in the "sustainability" track. "Peak Oil" was the major topic. I've followed the discussion of peak oil for quite some time, but never felt the immediacy of the problem nor considered just how far reaching its consequences until that conference. To summarize my feelings at the time, I will relate what I said to a friend at the conference. I said, "Dude, we're screwed."

If there was an upside to my feelings of dread it was that my creative juices started flowing. Since 95% of our transportation energy comes from oil, transportation will be hit hard as oil is harder to come by. (I haven't met anyone yet who believes the current low in oil prices will last into next summer.) To utilize other sources of power for transportation requires batteries or compressed gasses. Batteries are still not very efficient in terms of stored energy per unit of mass, despite continual research in the field. Compressed natural gas is a proposed solution, but requires replacement of the current fleet of vehicles, experiences energy losses due to compressing the gas, and will follow a similar depletion curve to oil. Hydrogen is a storage medium, not an energy source, so it would require additional energy to produce in addition to energy losses from compression and fleet replacement costs.

The thought occurred to me that rather than spending money on the kind of infrastructure needed for the inevitable change away from oil, we should consider a different kind of transportation infrastructure. Yes, trains and light rail would fall into this category, but what I'm referring to would be different altogether.

My idea is to utilize wireless electricity transmission systems to power cars. As I sat in the conference I tried to recall an article about MIT developing the ability to transmit power using magnetic induction. I couldn't recall the content then, but here is an article that discusses their technology. (Since that time Nevada Lightning Laboratory has published results of their experiments that can push more electricity over longer distances.) I reasoned that if transmitting coils could be embedded in roadways, cars could be manufactured with receiving coils that would in turn power electric motors. The beauty of the idea is that this could be a secondary system in traditional internal combustion vehicles or in battery powered cars. When such a car turns off of a "powered" road the other systems kick in. The cars could be put on the road during (or even before) the infrastructure build out.

Like most of my ideas, I'm not the first to think of it. Here is a patent application that states, "7. The system of claim 1, wherein said energy transmission system is arranged in proximity to a roadway and said energy reception system is arranged on an underside of an electrically chargeable vehicle." That's fine. I would just like to see the thing built. (To be fair, Nikola Tesla proposed the same thing a hundred years ago, but with airships.)

Monday, November 3, 2008

Prop 8

Proposition 8 in California and other similar measures have garnered a lot of press. Like so many other things in politics, I think the question, "Yes or no on prop 8?" is misguided. I think a better questions are:
  • Why are the federal and state governments involved in marriage at all?
  • Isn't marriage a religious rite?
  • What about the separation of church and state?
I think it is time for the government to get out of our lives on this front. Stop allowing justices of the peace to act as clergy. Stop selling marriage licenses. View marriages as a civil contract when things go bad and assets need to be divided. And certainly don't tax us because we may or may not be married.

The ROI of college

At one time I had developed a fairly sophisticated spreadsheet to analyze the net present value of college. Alas, it was lost when a hard drive failed. Thankfully, other people have done a similar analysis. Thanks to April Norhanian for pointing to it. The article does a good job of pointing out that wages lost while going to college and debt servicing are often left out when college promoters quote their statistics.

No correlation between college and income

This morning I was reading some articles from the Utah Department of Workforce Services' Trendlines publication. One article discussed the increase in median household income for the six most populous counties in the state. Another discussed the educational attainment of the same counties.

Naturally, I wondered about the correlation between the two. After all, if the people making the most noise about college are correct, there should be a distinct positive correlation. Right?

I did a quick regression analysis on the data. The first article listed median income for 2005 and 2007. The second included the percent of the population older than 25 that had at least a bachelor's degree. Since I don't know how current the data from the second article is, I did two analyses: one for 2007 and another for 2005.

Here's the data that Gnumeric (my favorite spreadsheet application) produced for me:

County% B.A.2007 M.I.
Salt Lake30$56,350

County% B.A.2005 M.I.
Salt Lake30$48,068

Regression (2007)

Regression Statistics

Multiple R0.3763818345189

R Square0.14166328535581

Adjusted R Square−0.07292089330524

Standard Error7718.04054428782


Regression (2005)

Regression Statistics

Multiple R0.08550799026314

R Square0.00731161639884

Adjusted R Square−0.24086047950145

Standard Error5948.6234792109


If you don't know and/or care much for statistics, the key value to look for is "R Square". The closer that number is to 1, the more perfectly correlated the data. The closer to 0, the less the numbers have to do with each other. For 2007 that number is about 0.14. For 2005 it is about 0.01. Even the 2007 number does not indicate any correlation.

I, a devout doubter of the return on investment of college, was surprised by this. No correlation at all? Amazing. I'll grant that such a small sample (n=6) doesn't mean much, but I found it interesting nonetheless.

Election prediction

As the election is tomorrow, I thought I would share my predictions with the world. The outcome of the election... won't matter. Whether we have President Obama or President McCain in January, the issues that concern me most are passed the point of fixing.

1. The National Debt. If you have had the stomach to watch the news and also block out the political cruft, you might be aware that the national debt has passed the $10,000,000,000,000 mark. I predict that the recession will be long enough that government revenues will not be close to expenditures over the next four years. If the debt is only $12 Trillion four years from now I will count us lucky.

2. Health Care. No new policy or program can defy the simple law of supply and demand. The Baby Boomers, a huge generation, are retiring, and as people age they require more health care. Especially a generation that did a lot of drugs in the 60's and ate a lot of McDonald's in the 80's and 90's. Health care will be the largest segment of federal expenditures in four years, and will have grown faster than any other segment.

3. Education. Despite the mess of No Child Left Behind, more money will be poured into the Department of Education, producing even worse results. I doubt anyone in Washington will figure out that the best way for them to improve education is just to stay out of the way of educators and parents.

4. Energy. For reasons that still baffle me, elected officials just don't get it when it comes to energy. If I could vote for T. Boone Pickens for president, I would. Four years from now we'll still be driving gasoline powered cars. The few electric or plug in hybrid cars out there will be charged from a coal powered grid.

So if anyone reads this and remembers it by 2012, remind me to check my predictions. We'll have a month before the end of the world to reflect. (If you have a life and don't watch the History Channel, that last bit is a reference to the supposed prediction of the end of the world by the Mayan calendar.)

Thursday, May 8, 2008

Is College worth the cost?

One theme I hope to explore here is the value of a college education. I have concluded that college, like crime, doesn't pay. I know that in stating such a thing I am certainly placing myself in a very small minority. In The Two Income Trap by Elizabeth Warren and her daughter Amelia Warren Tyagi the authors point out that 6% of the population believes the moon landing was faked while 3% believe college is not worth the time and cost.

Despite the heresy of my opinion, I believe I can back it up with reason and evidence. Specifically, the net present value of tuition, fees, books, lost income, etc. needs to be considered. Also, the causality/correlation problem of education attainment and intelligence plays a big factor and should be addressed. A critical look at the data from which the champions of higher ed. derive their propaganda would be a good thing as well. Finally, miscellaneous things such as lifestyle choice after graduation, career demands, the increasing cost of college, and the lack of correlation between education and wealth should be examined.

Of course such discussions take time, and considering how often I post to this blog, it will probably takes years.

Sunday, April 20, 2008


When I began this blog last year, it really was with the intention of making regular contributions. Life it funny, though. Since I last posted, I have started two different jobs, moved twice, and still don't quite feel settled. Nevertheless, I still feel compelled to write, so I'll try this again.